| S. Schier <sschier@carleton.edu > |
Office Hours: |
| 414 Willis, ext. 4118 |
MW 10:30-11:30, Tu 1:15-2:45
|
| Web page: |
F 11:50-12:50
|
| http://celeste.carleton.edu/curricular/POSC/faculty/schier |
Fall 2003
|
POSC 230 Methods of Political Research
The goals of this course are four: (1) acquaintance with the philosophy of social science and disputes over the “scientific” quality of political science, (2) understanding appropriate criteria for evaluating the scientific research of politics, (3) experience and practice in data analysis and (4) formulation of a research project using one of three quantitative datasets available to the class.
Although the topic of research methods initially may appear to be a dull one, in fact, the debates at the heart of any methods discussion are among the MOST contentious ones in our field. Political Science is known to be a ‘borrowing discipline’. It has been colonized by disciplines such as history, economics, psychology, sociology and anthropology. Each colonization has brought with it departmental disputes, struggles for preeminence among journals, and occasional wars over the hearts and minds of undergraduates and graduate students. The result of this historical pattern is the current pluralistic, multi-methodological mix that we find among practitioners in most departments (including our own here at Carleton). Some lament this haphazard and inefficient mess while others celebrate this freedom to pursue interesting questions by whatever means. Curse or blessing: even that is a matter of some debate.
The first section of the class involves philosophical debates about the scientific or “truth producing” qualities of political research. It culminates in a short 4-6 page paper concerning the “truth value” of political research. Most of the rest of the course involves three sorts of classes: (1) lectures on class topics, (2) examination of particular methods through reading and scholarly articles representative of common approaches in the discipline and (3) workshops in which students prepare their research proposals and discuss their research projects.
You will assemble your research projects through a series of smaller assignments due on our “workshop days” identified later in the syllabus. These involve the essential steps of the research process: formulating a question, reviewing literature, generating hypotheses, developing a testing strategy, analyzing data, and presenting your findings. On our “workshop” days, I may sometimes break the class into small sub-groups and have you discuss your work with your peers.
Texts:
Marsh and Stoker (eds), 2002. Theory and Methods in Political Science, Second Edition, 2002, Palgrave-MacMillan.
Johnson, Joslyn & Reynolds, 2001. Political Science Research Methods, 4th edition, CQ Press.
Van Evera, Stephen, 1997. Guide to Methods for Students of Political Science, Cornell University Press.
Grading (300 total points):
Philosophy of social science paper 20% (60 points)
Participation: 10 % (30 points)
Friday Workshop Assignments (6 total): 20% (60 points)
Research Proposal: 20% (60 points)
Final Project Presentation: 30% (90 points)
Total 300 points
The final grade and all letter-graded assignments are assessed on the following scale: 90-100% earns an “A,” 80-89% a “B,” 70-79% a “C,” 60-69% a “D,” and below 60% an “F.”
Workshop assignments will be graded on a Ö +, Ö, Ö- basis. Earning six Ö’s on the assignments guarantees a minimum of 48 points. Each Ö + (plus) earned increases that score by 5 points and each Ö- decreases that score by 5 points. Participation points will be assigned primarily on the basis of the instructor’s assessment of your preparation for session (did you appear to have read the article and have completed the assignment with the intention of joining in class discussion; did you hand in discussion questions in advance when required to do so). Average participation level will earn 24 points with above and below average students being assessed from this baseline.
Class Outline and Assignments
Monday, 9/15 Introduction and Syllabus
History, Foundations Controversies.
Wednesday, 9/17 Ontology, Epistemology & Theory
M & S, introduction and Ch. 1
Friday, 9/19 Workshop Assignment #1 Asking a Question
Read the first chapter of the JJR text which outlines eight different research programs in political science. After reading each section identify the broad research question that motivates the scholars working in each area (you will generate 8 questions). In some instances this question identification will be quite easy (it may even be the title of the subsection) but in others it may be tougher. When we meet on Friday we will collectively identify what these are. After you have completed this first task, reflect for a while on the political science courses you have taken. What topics from these courses particularly interested you at the time? Next, examine the descriptions of the three datasets – one each concerned with American politics, international relations and comparative politics -- listed at the end of the syllabus. Phrase at least two broad research questions -- like the ones you provided for the other eight research programs -- that arise from your previous courses and that you might explore through these datasets. On a single page submit these 10 or more questions.
Monday, 9/22 Is political science a science? I
M & S, Ch. 2; JJR, Ch. 2, Sibley handout
(Two discussion questions on these readings due to sschier via email by 9 AM today.)
Wednesday, 9/24 Is political science a science? II
Strauss handout, M & S, Chs. 6 & 8
(Two discussion questions on these readings due to sschier via email by 9 AM today.)
Friday, 9/26 NO CLASS
Monday, 9/29 Is political science a science? III
M & S, Chs. 4, 5, 7
(Two discussion questions on these readings due to sschier via email by 9 AM today.)
Wednesday, 10/1 Workshop Assignment #2: Hello, Datasets
Today, Paula Lackie will introduce our three datasets (described at the end of this syllabus) to us and familiarize us with how to open the datasets and analyze them with SPSS. Before this meeting, take some time to examine the datasets and their codebooks in greater detail. You will find them in the common folder for this course on the FABIO L: drive. Start by examining the codebook to get a sense of the variables available to you. If you have decided on a dataset already, study it a bit further. Next, write a two page summary paper answering the following questions: Who collected the data? What is the unit of analysis? How many cases are there in the dataset? What was the sampling method? For how many variables was data collected in each case? What variables does it contain which are of particular interest to you as dependent and independent variables? Evaluate the usefulness of the data for purposes of fulfilling your research proposal goals.
Friday, 10/3 Propositions, Hypotheses, Conceptualization and Measurement, Reliability and Validity
JJR, Chs. 3,4
Article for Discussion
Benjamin A. Most; Harvey Starr “Conceptualizing "War": Consequences for Theory and Research” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 27, No. 1. (Mar., 1983), pp. 137-159 (J-Stor)
Monday, 10/6 Workshop Assignment #3: Locating Literature
Part 1: Locate the J-Stor database on the library web site.
http://www.jstor.org/cgi-bin/jstor/gensearch
Conduct several searches on topics of interest to you by entering keywords in the full-text search. Make sure that the Political Science Journals box is checked. If your topic involves certain geographical areas, or economic issues you may want to select more journal categories. Comb the resulting list of articles for three or four that seem particularly relevant and read the abstracts, introductions and conclusions of these articles. When you’ve found a topic that seems especially interesting and accessible to you, save or print copies of the articles you’ve found.
You may need to adjust your search criteria (just putting War or Voting in the full-text search box will, of course, generate too many responses).
Part 2: Locate the Web of Science database on the library web site.
Do a ‘full’ search of the Social Science Citation Index for the articles you have selected from J-Stor. Record how many times each of the J-Stor articles you found has been cited. Next, see if you can find one of the citing articles. You may be able to find it on J-Stor (if it is older) or you may have to venture into the library if it is from a recent journal!
Write me a one page summary of how your search went. What did you search for? What keywords did you use? What did you find? On a second page include bibliographic references to the J-Stor articles you found and under each referenced article indicate how many times it has been cited based on the SSCI.
Come prepared Monday to discuss what you’ve found.
Here are some search hints for our three datasets. You’ll find articles by Ronald Inglehart and his coauthors using the World Values Survey by entering “Ronald Inglehart” as an “author” search in the J-Stor search engine. You also will find articles using this dataset by entering “World Values Survey” as a “full-text” search. You’ll find many articles using the American National Election Study by entering “ANES” as a “full-text” search. Enter “Bruce Russett” and/or “John R. Oneal” to find several articles they have written employing the “triangle” (for “Triangulating Peace”) dataset.
Wednesday, 10/8 Experiments, Internal and External Validity
JJR, Ch. 5
**********Philosophy of Social Science Paper Due TODAY in class**********
Friday, 10/10 Quasi-Experiments
Article for Discussion:
Shanto Iyengar “Television News and Citizens' Explanations of National Affairs (in Articles)” The American Political Science Review, Vol. 81, No. 3. (Sep., 1987), pp. 815-832. (J-Stor)
Monday, 10/13 Research Proposal
Although this could be considered a Workshop Assignment (entitled: ‘Proposing Hypotheses and a Testing Strategy’) I wanted you to pay extra attention to this important phase. Please submit a paper of not more than 6 pages (typed, double-spaced, 12 pt font) that includes:
1) An
articulation of your research question. (This is the intro paragraph.) The question
should be a manageable one. It MUST be phrased in the form of a question and
MUST address a political issue.
Examples: Are democratic dyads less prone to war? Why did some Eastern
European states transition from authoritarian rule more successfully than
others? Why do some states adopt stricter seatbelt safety laws? What factors
predicted a country’s support for the United States’ initiation of the War in
Iraq?
Examples of unacceptable research questions: Do seatbelt laws work? (This is a
public policy question; there is not enough political content.) I’d like to
study interstate border disputes. (Not in question format) What causes ethic
conflict? (Too broad)
2) A
literature review which provides some insights into what others have written
(or perhaps have overlooked) about this question. What theories have been
offered to explain the phenomenon? (4 pages) You may want to discuss
conceptualization issues here if there is any debate in your readings over how
terms are defined.
3) Although
you wouldn’t normally be so explicit about this phase, I’d like you to
articulate the general ‘approach’ to the research question that you will be
employing (behavioral, rational choice, institutional, Marxist, etc.) It may be
that you are blending aspects of two (or more). (1 page)
4) One
or more propositions derived from a theory that you could transform into a
testable hypothesis. (one or two sentences)
5) A very preliminary discussion of what kind of testing strategy you would want to employ (a three-cornered fight? a test of one hypothesis against the null?) and a discussion of what kind of data you would need to implement this strategy. What would the unit of analysis have to be? Would you need observations over multiple time periods etc. (This will guide your future data search.) (This section should amount to a few paragraphs.)
Keep in mind that these components are subject to change in the future as your project evolves, you do more reading, generate new hypotheses and assess the availability of data.
Wednesday, 10/15 Survey Research and Sampling
JJR, Ch. 7, M & S Ch. 10
Friday, 10/17 Univariate & Bivariate analysis
JJR, Chs. 11, 12
Article for Discussion:
Michael D. Wallace 1982. “Armaments and Escalation: Two Competing Hypotheses,” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 26, No. 1. pp. 37-56. (J-Stor)
Monday, 10/20 MIDTERM BREAK
Wednesday, 10/22 Working with SPSS: a session in the Willis computer workroom
Friday, 10/24 Multivariate Regression
JJR, Ch. 13 (405-411)
Article for Discussion
Jim Granato, Ronald Inglehart and David Leblang, “The Effects of Cultural Values on Economic Development: Theory, Hypotheses, and Some Empirical Tests,” American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 40, No. 3 (August, 1996), 607-631 (J-Stor).
Monday, 10/27 Logistic Regression
JJR, Ch. 13 (412 – 427)
Article for Discussion
David C. Barker, “Rushed Decisions: Political Talk Radio and Vote Choice, 1994-6,” The Journal of Politics, Vol. 61, No. 2 (May, 1999), pp. 527-539 (J-Stor).
Wednesday, 10/29 Workshop Assignment #4: Data Analysis 1
In this dataset you have chosen for your research project, locate a dependent variable of interest to you (preferably one that is not dichotomous). Generate some descriptive statistics of this variable. Estimate a bivariate model using this dependent variable and some relevant independent variable. You will likely need to consult the codebook in order to identify some relevant variables. You may need, or want, to perform some small transformations or index construction. If you happen to have a dichotomous dependent variable, then estimate a logistic regression. Use the equation for calculating probabilities to interpret the logistic coefficients. Turn in the results with a brief interpretation of your findings. (I don’t want copies of your SPSS printout; turn them into well presented tables.) Although there is no strict page limit, try to be efficient in your presentation. I do not expect more than about 3 pages including graphs and tables. I will provide a template table and some phraseology for you to emulate as a guide to completing this assignment.
Come Wednesday prepared to discuss your statistical analyses.
Friday, 10/31 Content analysis
JJR, Ch. 9
Monday, 11/3 Small-n sampling and the Comparative Method
Van Evera, Chs. 1 (skim), 2 (read carefully)
Article for Discussion:
L. Marvin Overby and Sarah J. Ritchie, “Mobilized Masses and Strategic Opponents: A Resource Mobilization Analysis of the Clean Air and Nuclear Freeze Movements,” The Western Political Quarterly, Vol. 44, No. 2. (Jun., 1991), pp. 329-351 (J-Stor).
Wednesday, 11/5 Workshop Assignment #5: Data Analysis 2
In the dataset you have chosen for your research project, locate a dependent variable of interest to you (preferably one that is not dichotomous). I would encourage you to use the same dependent variable from the last assignment. Estimate a multivariate model using this dependent variable and some relevant independent variables. You will likely need to consult the codebook in order to identify some relevant variables. You may again need to perform some small transformations or index construction. If you happen to have a dichotomous dependent variable then estimate a multivariate logistic regression. Use the equation for calculating probabilities to interpret the logistic coefficients.
Turn in the results with a brief interpretation of your findings (again, in well presented tables). This assignment should not require more than 3 pages including tables and graphs. I will, again, provide a template table and some phraseology for you to emulate as a guide to completing this assignment.
Come Wednesday prepared to discuss your statistical analysis.
Friday, 11/7 Qualitative methods
JJR, Ch. 10 (272-6), M & S ch. 9
Cameron Thies 2002. “A Pragmatic Guide to Qualitative Historical Analysis in the Study of International Relations” International Studies Perspective. Vol 3, November. (on reserve)
Monday, 11/10 Interviews
“Symposium on Interview Methods in Political Science” PS: Political Science and Politics. Vol 35, No 4, December 2002. pp 663-8. (on reserve)
Wednesday, 11/12 Workshop Assignment #6: Introduction, problem, hypotheses
Submit drafts of your Research question, Introduction, and hypotheses for consideration (no more than two pages total).
Come prepared to discuss these components.
Friday, 11/14 Combining Qualitative and Quantitative Methods
M & S, Ch. 11
Monday, 11/17 Poster sessions I
Wednesday, 11/19 Poster sessions II
Course Datasets
American National Election Study, 2000 – The Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan has conducted these academic surveys of American voters every two years since 1952. We will use the dataset from the 2000 Presidential election. In it are responses from 1,807 randomly selected individuals, gathered via in-person and telephone interviews, in two waves – one before election day and one just after. Included in the dataset are 1,904 variables of information about the respondents, including demographic information, responses to questions about opinions and attitudes on all manner of issues, candidate preferences and self-reported political behavior. The ANES has long been a data cornucopia for students of American politics.
World Values Surveys and European Values Surveys, 1981-4, 1990-3, 1995-7 – Conducted over the decades by Ronald Inglehart of the University of Michigan, this is the most extensive dataset available on comparative public opinion and attitudes. The 1997 survey alone includes over 60 separate surveys representing the publics of over 50 nations. Included in this vast dataset are responses of 168,482 people in surveys conducted in the three temporal waves – 1981-4, 1990-3 and 1995-7. The surveys include 251 variables concerning policy attitudes, demographic characteristics and self-reported behaviors. This is a great resource for students of comparative politics.
Triangle Dataset – This international relations dataset has an important dependent variable – whether or not a militarized dispute erupts between two nation-states. Bruce Russett of Yale University has collected a remarkable 39,336 observations of international crises from 1885 to 1991 and incorporated them into this dataset. Though the dataset had only fifteen other variables, all have theoretical importance regarding the presence of international war and peace, and you can examine relationships among them as well. These variables include, for example, bilateral trade between disputants, national membership in international governmental organizations, formal state alliances, and the internal democracy of the states. You can also subdivide the data by year to examine relationships over particular time periods. This is a worthwhile dataset for exploring enduring questions of war and peace.