Political Science 343

Prof. Robert Packer

Winter 1999

Office: Willis 413, Hours: TBA

T Th 10:30PM-12:15PM, Willis 204

x-4119

 

TURBULENCE IN WORLD POLITICS

Political Science 343 addresses the lingering questions left in the wake of the Cold War. More importantly, this course attempts to identify the problems and opportunities that will command our interest into the twenty-first century. I developed Political Science 343 to be an addendum to Political Science 170 (International Relations & World Politics). In the introductory course, students were exposed to the major approaches in studying global political phenomena. Furthermore, they became acquainted with some of the major issue areas in the field. In Turbulence in World Politics, we will delve deeper in analyzing major international issues. By reviewing major theoretical approaches by leading scholars in the field of world politics, we can better analyze and make sense of the changes and challenges that lie before the United States and world.

The key idea behind this course is that in the wake of the Cold War, the field of world politics - and the world it purports to explain - is undergoing turbulent change. The singular threat of international communism has given way to the triple threat from peer, rogue, and failed states. "Peer states" are those that may rise to challenge the present American "unipolar moment." Whether such competitive balancing behavior by Russia or China can be forestalled is a major concern. "Rogue states," such as Iran, Iraq, and North Korea, are regional powers that reject the current international order. Through support of terrorism and proliferation efforts, these states directly resist multilateral efforts for global tranquillity. Finally, there are the "failed states," such as Liberia, Bosnia, and Somalia, whose very legitimacy to statehood is questioned. With the collapse of central authority, these states exist in the throes of Hobbesian anarchy.

In a world caught up in revolutionary change, where instability, turbulence, and violence are widespread, no one can predict the shape of events to come. The level of danger to Americans will vary, but our political and economic interests are global. The world's attitudes toward, and perceptions of, American leadership - and its role as a force for democracy and international stability - affect not just our political relations, but also our economic relationships and markets.

COURSE OBJECTIVES AND STRUCTURE

A principal focus of Turbulence in World Politics will be a review of the major theoretical debate in world politics between Realism and Liberalism, as well as an examination of the changed world order since the end of the Cold War. Of particular concern is the formulation of American national security policy in the "new world entropy." With American forces now deployed in Bosnia, we will explore the issue of military intervention in the volatile Second Tier (the former Communist states and Third World). Such intervention should be examined from the standpoint of protecting American interests and values. Much of the turmoil in the Second Tier stems from the legacy of weak state institutionalization, ethnic conflict, and the pains of socioeconomic transformation.

The role of cultural identity as a crucial variable in world politics will be taken up as well. With ethnic and religious conflict occurring around the world, Communitarianism is now vying with Realism and Liberalism as a political force. Will we see a "clash of civilizations" or are the nations of the Third World on the road to a universal Liberalism?

This course will be organized as a seminar. Students are responsible for completing the assigned readings before each class session. In-class seminar discussion is indispensable to the learning process and will make up 24% of the grade. Volunteers will lead discussion of readings each class session. All students should come to class with a list of major points brought out in the readings as a guide to discussion. In addition, I will set up an electronic discussion conference and strongly encourage students to participate in outside-class discussions of global political issues.

In addition to discussion, students are required to write two abstracts of data-based articles on world politics (6% of grade). Abstracts are short, one-and-a-half to two page papers analyzing data-based journal articles. In the abstracts, students are to list: 1) the query, or the question to be tested and explained; 2) the explanatory and outcome variables and the putative relationship between the two; 3) the indicators used in measuring the variables and the strength of relationship between them; 4) data sources that the author used; 5) any data manipulation used (e.g., regression, analysis of variance); and 6) the findings.

I am assigning three eight-to-nine page examinations on the major theoretical themes of the course. These exams will make up 14% apiece (42% total). The purpose is to give students an opportunity to critically evaluate arguments made on the emerging world order. Finally, there is a 16-to-20-page term paper (28% of grade) on a major international or American national security topic (e.g., the "rogue state threat" or American intervention policy). The paper topic must be approved by the instructor.

Exams (three 8-9 pages)

42%

Abstracts (two page-and-one-half)

6%

Term Paper (16-20 pages)

28%

Class participation

24%

All late exam essays are subject to a one-third-grade deduction penalty per day (e.g., a "B+" paper shall receive a "B" if one day late, a "B-" if two days late, and so on).

I will put some flexibility into the course outline in order to take advantage of any "in time"developments that may occur. I strongly encourage students to read the major world politics/international securities affairs journals in staying current on world events. These journals include International Security, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, World Politics, Current History, and Orbis. You should also become a regular reader of a newsweekly, such as The Economist.

BOOKS

Required:

Arthur Stein, Why Nations Cooperate: Circumstance and Choice in International Relations (1990)

Richard Haass, Intervention: The Use of American Military Force in the Post-Cold War World (1994)

Michael Klare, Rogue States and Nuclear Outlaws: America's Search for a New Foreign Policy (1995)

COURSE OUTLINE

1. After the Dawn: The Changed World Order

January 17

Khalilzad & Lesser, ed. Sources of Conflict in the 21st Century (1998): 7-42.

Jervis, "The Future of World Politics," in Art & Jervis, ed., International - Politics: Enduring Concepts and Contemporary Issues (1996): 401-414.

Gaddis, "International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War," International Security 17 (Winter 1992/93): 5-58.

January 19

Lebow, "The Long Peace, the End of the Cold War, and the Failure of Realism," in Lebow and Risse-Kappen, ed., International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War (1995): 23-56.

Wohlforth, "Realism and the End of the Cold War," in Brown, Lynn-Jones, and Miller, ed. Perils of Anarchy: Contemporary Realism and International Security (1995): 3-41.

Exam I - Explaining the End of the Cold War (due by January 25)

II. Realism and the neo-Liberal Challenge

January 21

Stein, Why Nations Cooperate (1990): 3-24.

Baldwin, "Neoliberalism, Neorealism, and World Politics," in Neorealism and Neoliberalism: The Contemporary Debate (1993): 3-25.

Mearsheimer, "The False Promise of International Institutions," in Brown, Lynn-Jones, and Miller, ed. Perils of Anarchy: Contemporary Realism and International Security (1995): 332-376.

January 23/24

Grieco, "Anarchy and the Limits of Cooperation," in Art & Jervis, ed., International Politics: Enduring Concepts and Contemporary Issues (1996):76-80.

Brooks, "Dueling Realisms" International Organization (Summer 1997): 445-477.

Stein, Why Nations Cooperate (1990): 25-86.

January 26

Stein, Why Nations Cooperate (1990): 115-150.

Copeland, "Economic Interdependence and War," International Security (Spring 1996):5-41.

January 28

Owen, "How Liberalism Produces Democratic Peace in Brown, Lynn-Jones, and Miller, ed., Debating the Democratic Peace (1996): 116-154.

Elman, "Testing the Democratic Peace Theory," in Elman, ed., Paths to Peace: Is Democracy the Answer? (1997): 473-506.

Mastanduno, "Preserving the Unipolar Moment: Realist Theories and U.S. Grand Strategy after the Cold War." International Security (Spring 1997): 49-88.

Exam II - Realism v. Liberalism as relevant paradigms in the post-Cold War world (due by February 12)

III. Why the Third World still matters - pandemonium or civilizational conflict?

January 30

Porter, "Russia and Europe After the Cold War: The Interaction of Domestic and Foreign Policies," in Wallender, ed. The Sources of Russian Foreign After the Cold War (1996): 121-145.

Shambaugh, "Containment or Engagement of China?" International Security (Fall t996):180-209.

Goldstein, "[China's Growing Power: Theoretical Expectations]," International Security (Winter 1997/ 98): 62-73.

February 2

Ayoob, The Third World Security Predicament (1995): 115-137.

David, "Why the Third World Still Matters," International Security (Winter 1992/93):127-159.

Huntington, "The Clash of Civilizations?" in Foreign Affairs Agenda, The Shape of World Politics: Contending Paradigms in International Relations (1997): 67-91.

February 4

Tarock, "Civilizational Conflict? Fighting the Enemy Under a New Banner," Third World Quarterly (Spring 1995): 4-18.

O'Hagan, "Civilizational Conflict? Looking For Cultural Enemies," Third World Quarterly (Spring 1995): 19-38.

"Middle East Radicalism," National Defense University, Strategic Assessment 1997:169-184.

Esposito, "Political Islam: Beyond the Green Menace," Current History (January 1994):19-24.

Klare, Rogue States and Nuclear Outlaws: America's Search for a New Foreign Policy (1995): 3-34.

Exam III - A "clash of civilizations"? (due by February 22)

IV. Rogue States - "the search for new enemies"?

February 9

Klare, Rogue States and Nuclear Outlaws: America's Search for a New Foreign Policy (1995): 35-129.

February 11

Tanter, Rogue Regimes: Terrorism and Proliferation (1998): 1-43.

Phillips, "The Saddamization of Iran: Is Tehran Our Next Big Enemy?" (October 31, 1994)

Cordesman & Hashim, Iran: Dilemmas of Dual Containment (1997): 1-25.

February 16

Masoud, "Misreading Iran," Current History (January 1998): 38-43.

Cordesman & Hashim, Iraq: Sanctions and Beyond (1997): 290-359.

February 18

Ayoob, The Third World Security Predicament (1995): 165-188.

Gurr, "Communal Conflicts and Global Security," Current History (May 1995): 212-217.

Brown, "The Causes of Internal Conflict," in Brown, Coté, Lynn-Jones, and Miller, ed., Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict (1997): 3-25.

Herbst, "Responding to State Failure in Africa," International Security (Winter 1996/97):120-144.

V. Redefining American Security Interests

February 23

Posen & Ross, "Competing Visions for U.S. Grand Strategy," International Security (Winter 1996/97): 5-53.

Haass, Intervention (1994): 1-66.

February 25

Haass, Intervention (1994): 67-122.

March 2

Haass, Intervention (1994): 123-156.

Brown & deJonge Oudraat, "Internal Conflict and International Action," in Brown, Coté, Lynn-Jones, and Miller, ed., Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict (1997): 235-264.

"Balkans," National Defense University, Strategic Assessment 1997: 145-156.

March 4

Asmus, Kugler, & Larrabee, "NATO Enlargement: Framework for Analysis," in Gordon, ed., NATO's Transformation: The Changing Shape of the Atlantic Alliance (1997): 93-120.

Sagan, "The Causes of Nuclear Proliferation," Current History (April 1997): 15 1 - 156.

Karl, "Proliferation Pessimism and Emerging Nuclear Powers," International Security (Winter

1996/97): 87-119.

March 9

Snow, National Security (1998): 318-336.

National Defense University, Strategic Assessment 1997: 231-242.

Final Paper - Due March 17