Measured Thinking: Reasoning with Numbers about World Events, Health, Science, and Social Issues

Interdisciplinary Studies 100-00, Fall 2011

An Arguments and Inquiry First-Year Seminar

Neil Lutsky
Olin 111, x4379, Course Office Hour: Mondays, 1:30-2:30
nlutsky@carleton.edu

“the cognitive skill to distinguish among hope, faith, possibility, probability, and certitude
are potent weapons in anyone’s political survival kit and can be applied in all areas of life and society.”

-Robert Kuhn, American Scientist, September, 2003

This course addresses one of the signal features of contemporary academic, professional, public, and personal life: a reliance on information and arguments involving numbers. This presence of numbers suggests, in turn, that we need to be able to evaluate quantitative evidence thoughtfully and critically, and to employ quantitative skills to their best advantage to contribute to society. This seminar is designed to help you strengthen these abilities and to learn more about the role of quantification in contemporary discourse.

In this course, we will work together to identify general rules or principles that may help guide our understanding and evaluation of a wide variety of claims about the world. Some of what it will take to do so will require a modest introduction to statistics and research methodology--and we will pursue that background when necessary--but most of what we need will involve sharp and attentive thinking about how quantitative information is generated, summarized, evaluated, and represented. What I hope this course will show you is that developing the habit of thinking intelligently about quantitative claims is vitally important, not that difficult, and highly rewarding.

This seminar is one of Carleton's Arguments and Inquiry Seminars for first-year students. As such, it is intended to contribute to your understanding of the nature of scholarship and argument in academia and to your consideration of what it might mean to take a liberal arts approach to learning. Both of these goals are closely related to what we will be covering in the Measured Thinking seminar, and we also join with our colleagues from around the college later this term (see 9/23 in the syllabus) to discuss issues associated with liberal arts learning in conjunction with the convocation that day. Measured Thinking also counts as a Quantitative Reasoning Encounter (QRE) and as a Writing Rich (WR) course. That means we will pay special attention to both quantitative reasoning and writing this term. In fact, at its heart, this course is intended to help you strengthen your ability to construct sound and principled written arguments using quantitative evidence. In addition to my assistance, you will have a student Writing Consultant, Michael Alexander, available to help you.

Your grade in Measured Thinking will be largely dependent on your diligence as a student. You should attend class regularly (despite the early hour), complete readings and assignments on time, demonstrate that you have paid close attention to instructions, and participate thoughtfully in class discussion. If you are diligent as a student, I would expect to see the quality of your work improve over the course of the term. This ought not to be a course in which you will have to worry about grades. Just do the work, pay attention, participate, learn, and have some fun.

Seminar Books:

Blastland, M., & Dilnot, A. (2009). The numbers game: The common sense guide to understanding numbers in the news, in politics, and in life. New York: Gotham.
Brandt, A. M. (2007). The cigarette century. New York: Basic.
Hemenway, D. (2004). Private guns public health. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Miller, J. (2004). The Chicago guide to writing about numbers. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Tufte, E. (1997). Visual and statistical thinking. Cheshire, CT: Graphics Press.

Standard Class Meeting Schedule: Monday/Wednesday, 8:30-9:40, and Friday, 8:30-9:30, Olin 102-104

Monday, 9/12 (8:30-9:20): Why study quantitative reasoning? IDSC 100 Entrance Examination!

[Introduction to Numbers We Should Know assignment]

Wednesday, 9/14: Finding and evaluating quantitative information. Visit with Ann Zawistoski, Carleton Reference Librarian, Meet in Library 306.

Paulos, J. (1988). Innumeracy: Examples and principles, pp. 3-14.


Friday, 9/16, 8:30-9:40: An introduction to writing with and about numbers; Structuring a paper; Properly attributing sources. Class session with Professor Seth Greenberg.

Miller, J. E. (2004). The Chicago guide to writing about numbers, pp. 11-31, 220-238.
Carleton College. Academic honesty in the writing of essays and other papers, pp. 2-23.


Monday, 9/19: Got numbers? Using and summarizing numbers with integrity, questioning summaries knowledgeably.

Gawande, A. (2007). Better: A surgeon’s notes on performance, pp. 51-69, 169-200.
Blastland, M., & Dilnot, A. (2009). The numbers game, pp. 59-77.
Gould, S. J. (1985). The median isn’t the message, 6 pps.

Wednesday, 9/21: Numbers in the analysis of social issues.

[Numbers We Should Know paper due (bring 3 copies)]

Goldacre, B. (2005). Don’t dumb me down, The Guardian, 4 pp.
Blastland, M., & Dilnot, A. (2009). The numbers game, pp. 132-149.
Miller, J. E. (2004). The Chicago guide to writing about numbers, pp. 53-79.

Friday, 9/23: Reflection: What might it mean to take a liberal arts approach to learning?

[Required Convocation: Professor Bryan Garsten, Yale University, Chapel, 10:50-11:50]

Giamatti, A. B. (1983). The earthly use of a liberal education, pp. 118-126.
Garsten, B. (2006). Saving persuasion, pp. 1-10.

Monday, 9/26: Graphic knowledge; Strengthening NWSK papers.

            [Numbers We Should Know paper reviews (bring 2 copies)]

Tufte, E. (1997). Visual and statistical thinking, pp. 1-31.
Ramage, J. D., Bean, J. C., & Johnson, J. (2007) Writing arguments, pp. 109-121.

Wednesday, 9/28: Even more graphic knowledge; Numbers and art.

Cohen, I. B. (2005). The triumph of numbers, pp. 158-177.
Blastland, M., & Dilnot, A. (2009). The numbers game, pp. 12-30.
Bruce, C. (2004). Chris Jordan: The effective image,. pp. 7-14.

Friday, 9/30: No class (given required convocation of 9/23).

[Numbers We Should Know revised paper due in Olin 111]

Monday, 10/3: Data in argument: A public health case study.

Hemenway, D. (2004). Private guns public health, pp. xi-78, 79-151.


Wednesday, 10/5: Data in argument: Structuring comparisons. Visit by Mary Lewis Grow.

[Introduction to Evaluating Hemenway's Arguments assignment]

Hemenway, D. (2004). Private guns public health, pp. 152-226.
Blastland, M., & Dilnot, A. (2009). The numbers game, pp. 161-181.

Friday, 10/7: Running the Numbers project, Northfield Middle School.

Monday, 10/10: Measurement: Generating numbers and meaning.

[Evaluating Hemenway's Arguments paper due (bring 2 copies)]

Blastland, M., & Dilnot, A. (2009). The numbers game, pp. 1-11, 78-95.
Henshaw, J. M. (2006). Does measurement measure up? pp. 37-54.
Rivlin, G. (2006). In vino veritas? The New York Times, 3 pp.

Wednesday, 10/12: Representing measurements and variation (or how to catch z's).

Miller, J. E. (2004). The Chicago guide to writing about numbers, pp. 83-101.
Kent, D., & Hayward, R. (2007). When averages hide individual differences in clinical trials. American Scientist, pp. 60-68.

Friday, 10/14: Running the Numbers project, Northfield Middle School.

Monday, 10/17: Midterm Break.

Wednesday, 10/19 and Friday, 10/21: Smoking, quantitative argument, and public health.

Brandt, A. M. (2007). The cigarette century, pp. 1-129, 130-207, 211-445, 449-505.

Monday, 10/24: Quantification and research design.

Wootton, D. (2006). Bad medicine: Doctors doing harm since Hippocrates, pp. 1-26, 259-268.
Blastland, M., & Dilnot, A. (2009). The numbers game, pp. 182-192.
Kolata, G. (2008). Searching for clarity: A primer on medical studies, 4 pp.

Wednesday, 10/26: The oddities of a life of chance: Understanding risk, probability, and hypothesis testing.

Blastland, M., & Dilnot, A. (2009). The numbers game, pp. 31-40, 41-58, 96-110.
Taleb, J. (2005). Fooled by randomness, pp. xxxix-42.
Miller, J. E. (2004). The Chicago guide to writing about numbers, pp. 40-52.


Friday, 10/28: Summarizing research quantitatively.

[Introduction to Final Project assignment]

Ioannidis, J. P. A. (2005). Contradicted and initially stronger effects in highly cited clinical research,
pp. 218-228.
Taubes, G. (1995). Epidemiology faces its limits, pp. 164-169.

Monday, 10/31: Understanding quantitative claims in the health literature.

Gigerenzer, G., Gaissmaier, W., Kurz-Milcke, E., Schwartz, L. M., & Woloshin, S. (2008). Helping doctors and patients make sense of health statistics, pp. 53-96.
Saul, S., & Berenson, A. (2007). Maker of Lipitor digs in to fight generic rival, 2 pp.

Wednesday, 11/2: Correlation and regression.

Best, J. (2004). More damned lies and statistics, pp. 37-42.
Blastland, M., & Dilnot, A. (2009). The numbers game, pp. 183-192.


Friday, 11/4. Running the Numbers project, Northfield Middle School.

[Final Project section due]

Monday, 11/7: The psychology of numbers.

Dehaene, S. (1997). The number sense, pp. 13-40, 64-88.
Peters, E., Vastfjall, D., Slovic, P., Mertz, C. K., Mazzoceo, K., & Dickert, S. (2006). Numeracy and decision making,  pp. 407-413.


Wednesday, 11/9: Sampling and polling.

Blastland, M., & Dilnot, A. (2009). The numbers game, pp. 111-131.
Newport, F., Sand, L., & Moore, D. (1997). How are polls conducted? 6 pps.

Friday, 11/11: Final project presentations.

Monday, 11/14: Summing up.

Abelson, R. (1995). Statistics as a principled argument, pp. 1-14.
Blastland, M., & Dilnot, A. (2009). The numbers game, pp. 193-194.

[Final Projects due]


Wednesday, 11/16: Closing: Quantification, criticism, and responsibility.